Australia's coalition party and its current leader, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, may be about to lose the forthcoming Australian federal election as polls turn against them. Why? It may be attributable to two primary factors. One is that without the Rudd/Gillard gridlock, the Australian Labor Party is reasonably unified and for a change, it is the Coalition that is factionally riven. Turnbull is an inexperienced political leader, while Shorten is an experienced trade union campaigner. Social liberal voters are disappointed with Turnbull's pandering to religious social conservatives over issues like the Abbott era and there is still the potential presence of Tony Abbott and his "Awkward Brigade,' ready to cause trouble on the Liberal backbenches. Opinion is divided about how realistic the polls are, however. One train of political commentator thought has a slashed Coalition majority, akin to Julia Gillard's outcome in 2010, while another has an outright ALP victory possible. Bear in mind that unlike New Zealand, the lower Australian federal House of Representatives is elected through the unproportional "preferential voting' electoral system, so marginal seats assume as much importance in Australia as they did in New Zealand under First Past the Post. Some have suggested that despite the fact that the ALP may end up substantially eroding the Coalition's majority within the House of Representatives, they may not be able to unseat them. There have been a few hiccups on both sides of the electoral boundary line, and some Liberal and ALP prior candidates have had to step down due to undeclared conflicts of interest or past misdemeanours. Immigration Minister Peter Dutton did some refugee-bashing, claiming that refugees and asylum seekers were often functional illiterates who would languish on Australia's dole queues and take jobs from Australians, while the Liberal Treasurer Scott Morrison and Australian Labor Party clashed over questions of accurate ALP policy costings On May 29, Shorten and Turnbull made the first of a series of leaders debates. Final candidate nominations were due by June 9. So, what is the Australian LGBT community doing during this period? The Victorian and New South Wales Gay and Lesbian Rights Lobby Groups have teamed up, and presented a "Rainbow Votes" assessment of how the various Australian federal political parties play out on LGBTI issues. On marriage equality, as noted above, the differences are quite stark, given the Turnbull administration favours a plebiscite on the issue and the ALP states that it will legislate within the first hundred days of its tenure for marriage equality. Other issues are also under debate. Intersexed, transgender, Queensland, South Australian, HIV/AIDS advocacy and LGBT families organisations have joined NSWGLRL and VGLRL in this initiative. School safety and specialised anti-bullying programmes, LGBTI national curriculum issues, the appointment of a federal LGBTI Rights Commissioner, aged care service inclusiveness, safety and provision, religious exemptions within federal antidiscrimination laws, LGBTI federal statistics inclusion, LGBTI-inclusive health professional training, inclusive mental health and family violence prevention programmes, improved hormone treatment access for transgender youth and during the transitioning process, the right to refuse infant intersex genital mutilation and informed consent, asylum and refugee rights and advocacy for LGBTI rights in overseas anti-LGBT jurisdictions are all included within this document. It provides an interesting mixture of stakeholder policy inclusion and legislative reform issues, indicating that while Australia has yet to implement marriage equality legislation and conclude adoption reform at the Northern Territory, South Australia and Queensland state level, other policies of importance to LGBT Australians are not being neglected. The marriage equality plebiscite has also featured prominently in this context, with Turnbull arguing that any positive result will be reflected in a Coalition free vote on the issue of marriage equality within the federal House of Representatives, should the Coalition win. However, information has surfaced that if individual constituencies vote 'no' within the plebiscite, their incumbent MPs will have the excuse that "their constituency" opposes marriage equality, and vote against any Australian marriage equality legislative reform, delaying it still further- unless the ALP wins, in which case there will be no plebiscite, and there will be marriage equality legislative reform straight away. Bill Shorten featured prominently in a Sydney Star Observer article on his stance on LGBT rights and how the Australian Labor Party seems to have finally caught up with New Zealand and British Labour and the German SPD on the issue of marriage equality. Shorten not only favours immediate legislative reform when it comes to marriage equality in Australia, he would reverse the Coalition's decision to shut down funding for the antibullying Safe Schools Coalition programmes, appoint a national LGBT Commissioner, and probably other reforms as well. That can only be welcome- and what a contrast with the coalition. Meanwhile, deep within the quagmire of anti- LGBT politics, the fundamentalist "Australian Christian Lobby" is whingeing about the Australian Labor Party's decision not to waste $A148 million on the Coalition's pointless plebiscite and begging Shorten to reverse his party's policy. They've set up a website to do so. Don't they think that at a time of national recession, any responsible Australian federal government should have other policies? It's interesting to see how obsessed they are with their campaign against marriage equality, given that they have an ancillary website set up on this issue. It is holding meet the candidates meetings in four electorates- Blair, Petrie, Moreton and Bowman and all but one seem to be held in Baptist churches. Figures, given the rife fundamentalism within that denomination. All four of these federal electorates are in Queensland and all are marginal. Predictably, as one can see from the existing Let Me Have a Say ancillary website, the ACL has a bias against the Australian Labor Party and the Greens. And note also that like US fundamentalist pressure groups, the organisation believes that fundamentalist-owned businesses and fundamentalist-led organisations in a secular marketplace should have the rights to service provider and employment discrimination. Unfortunately, there are already loopholes when it comes to religious NGOs and education providers in some Australian states. It has also already imported one US Christian Right activist, Eric Metaxas, to propagandise against marriage equality in Australia. Not that everything has gone smoothly for the anti-LGBT camp- Shelton made an absurd and deeply offensive comment comparing advocates of marriage equality to Nazi Germany, which was slammed by both LGBT organisations and Australian Jewish advocacy group B'nai B'rith Australia. According to former Gaynz.Com associate Matt Akersten inSamesame(23.06.2016), the ACL is running scared of the anti-plebiscite campaign mounted by Australian LGBT organisations and allies. It wants money for their plebiscite so it can run an anti-LGBT scare campaign to try to convince gullible voters in conservative states like predominantly rural Queensland to vote against it, insuring that conservative and rural 'no' constituencies may swing unsure Coalition representatives against voting for any post-plebiscite marriage equality bill due to their 'constituency wishes.' As Matt notes, there will probably be an active attempt to twist any negative constituency votes into an excuse to vote against this long-delayed social reform. The Australian Senate is elected along more proportional Single Transferable Vote lines and there may not be a Coalition majority within it after the federal election, which means that it can block any plebiscite proposal. If the ALP wins the election, however, the plebiscite will be cancelled and a marriage equality parliamentary vote will probably be held and won. The Australian Christian Right is also visibly networking during this election-witness the Melbourne based "Salt Shakers" pressure group newsletter , which carries information from the Australian Christian Lobby, Family Voice Australia (aka the Festival of Light Australia). Family Voice Australia sent out a questionnaire to prospective electoral candidates, two of whose questions oppose marriage equality and comprehensive anti-bullying resources like the Safe Schools Coalition provides in Victoria, for both the House of Representatives and Australian Senate. Predictably, Family Voice is biased against the ALP and Greens. So is the "Australian Christian Values Institute" party checklist. Moreover, there are also worrying signs of international Christian Right interference in the Australian federal election. Witness CitizenGo's call for (conservative Christian) Australians to vote against abortion, euthanasia, marriage equality and transgender rights ("for life and family") from its Madrid-based website. Meanwhile, Fred Niles Christian Democratic Party is publicising its own brand of Christian Right politics, although there is no chance that it will gain representation in the Single Transferable Vote-elected Australian Senate. Still, unless the Turnbull administration can manage to reverse course and relent on some of its hardline stances, it still looks like Australian social liberals are going to be able to reverse the introspective backwardness that has damaged the country's international reputation and federal Australian politics since the election of right-wing Liberal Prime Minister John Howard twenty years ago. The Liberal/National Coalition may not be defeated, but it may be weakened enough for equality and accountability to prevail, certainly on the marriage equality front. The latest Australian federal opinion polls certainly indicate a tight electoral race is underway. One lives in hope. Recommended: Victorian Gay and Lesbian Rights Lobby: Rainbow Votes Questionnaire 2016:http://www.vglrl.org.au/ images/Rainbow_Votes_Election_ 2016_Questionnaire_FINAL.pdf Matt Wade: "Lyle Shelton defends controversial Nazi Germany comparisons"Sydney Star Observer:01.06.2016:http://www. starobserver.com.au/news/ national-news/lyle-shelton- defends-controversial-nazi- germany-comparisons/149780 Mark Kenny: "Same-Sex Marriage: Secret moves within Coalition to hobble plebiscite" The Age: 25.06.2016:http://www.theage. com.au/federal-politics/ federal-election-2016/samesex- marriage-secret-moves-within- coalition-to-hobble- plebiscite-20160624-gprerl. html Shannon Power: "How Bill Shorten became a Champion of the LGBTI community"Sydney Star Observer: 24.06.2016:http://www. starobserver.com.au/news/how- bill-shorten-became-a- champion-of-the-lgbti- community/150255 Matt Akersten: "Christian Lobby is scared the Senate will vote the Coalition's rigged plebiscite" Samesame: 23.06.2016:http://www. samesame.com.au/news/13862/ Christian-Lobby-is-scared-the- Senate-will-block-Coalitions- rigged-plebiscite Wikipedia/LGBT rights in Australia:https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_ rights_in_Australia Wikipedia/Opinion polling for the Australian federal election 2016:https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_ the_Australian_federal_ election,_2016 Not Recommended: Australian Christian Lobby: Let Me Have a Say:http://www.letmehaveasay.com Lyle Shelton: "Labor's Promised Review of Religious Freedom Leaves Door Open to Green Style Changes" ACL: 24.05.2016:http://www.acl. org.au/labor_s_promised_ review_of_religious_freedom_ leaves_door_open_to_greens_ style_changes Lyle Shelton: "Labor nails its rainbow colours to the mast" ACL: 24.05.2016:http://www.acl. org.au/labor_s_rainbow_ colours_nailed_to_the_mast Lyle Shelton: "Christian organisations have right to employ those who share their ethos" ACL: 02.06.2016:http://www.acl. org.au/christian_ organisations_have_the_right_ to_employ_those_who_share_ their_ethos Lyle Shelton: "Eric Metaxas on Christian involvement in politics" ACL: 24.05.2016:http://www.acl. org.au/eric_metaxas_on_ christian_involvement_in_ politics Family Voice Australia: Questionnaire:http://www. fava.org.au/_r2825/media/ system/attrib/file/256/ FederalElectionQuestionnaire20 16.pdf FAVA House of Representatives candidate and party stances:http://survey.fava. org.au/elections/electorates/ 109 FAVA Senate candidate and party stances:http://survey.fava. org.au/elections/electorates/ 110 "FAVA: Where do the parties stand on family issues?" 22.06.2016:http://www.fava. org.au/news/2016/where-do-the- parties-stand-on-family- issues/ Salt Shakers:News Update: June 24:http://www.saltshakers. org.au/index.php/latest-news/ 1630-news-update-23-june- election-homosexual-marriage- euthanasia-islam Citizen Go: Use Your Vote to Defend Life, Family and Freedom: 20.06.2016:http://www. citizengo.org/en/pc/35257- july-2nd-vote-defend-life- family-and-freedom Australian Christian Values Institute: Checklist: 2016 Federal Election:http://www. christianvalues.org.au/index. php/checklists/current- elections Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile):http://www.cdp.org.au Craig Young - 29th June 2016